A Paradigm Shift in Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Critical Re-Evaluation of Deterrence Theory in the Multipolar World Order

Abstract

Amidst the evolving multipolar global landscape, the traditional deterrence theory requires a nuanced reevaluation. This article employs a mixed-methods approach, integrating quantitative geopolitical risk modeling with qualitative case studies from pivotal international conflicts. The findings suggest that conventional deterrence mechanisms may be insufficient in contemporary geopolitical contexts, necessitating strategic innovations. The study concludes with recommendations for policy adaptations designed to enhance international stability.